Read Exposure Forecast

Separate observed, projected and later-observed layers

Exposure Forecast combines known underlying prices with projected exposure levels and a variance-clock range. A historical view can also show later observed outcomes in gray. Those layers answer different questions: what was observed by the valuation cutoff, what the selected model projected, and what subsequently occurred. Read the valuation timestamp before treating a gray outcome as information available at the forecast's starting point.

Create a focused forecast view

The chart can use actual observed candles or a line according to the selected mode and available source.

1. Open Gamma → Forecast or add Exposure Forecast to Map.
2. Choose the underlying, session, trading date and valuation minute.
3. Configure the available forecast horizons and range width in settings.
4. Choose the supported chart mode and interval.
5. Inspect the current reference, projected lines and methodology labels.
6. Use Reset to restore available bounds after manual navigation.

Read ranges and historical statistics carefully

A variance-clock cone describes model assumptions and range width. It is not a promise that prices remain inside it. Repriced levels use the selected model inputs and horizons. Any displayed empirical hold rates or typical moves depend on available OrderMap history, sample selection and coverage. A percentage without a sample or matching horizon is insufficient to infer next-session probability. Model states are descriptive hints rather than calibrated trading instructions.

Worked interpretation: an old forecast with gray outcomes

Select an available historical minute and identify the known candle at that cutoff. The projected range extends beyond it; later gray observations show how prices actually developed where captured. A later point outside the cone is an observed outcome under that sample, not proof that the renderer was wrong. Return the slider earlier and verify later inputs are not being presented as known. Compare another horizon with its own range rather than stretching one result across time.

Troubleshoot missing candles or a frozen viewport

Check whether the chart is historical, manually panned or live. Current data refreshes preserve manual navigation, so use Reset when the live edge is off screen. Off-cash SPX/NDX candles require eligible implied-price inputs and labeling; missing minutes stay absent. A successful quote refresh cannot manufacture missing forecast inputs. Send support the horizon, width, interval, reference timestamp and coverage state alongside the plot.

Model, perspective and units

Exposure is a sensitivity calculation, not an execution total. GEX means gamma exposure, DEX means delta exposure, VEX means vanna exposure, and CEX means charm exposure; charm can also be called CHEX. VEX does not mean vega in these tools. Select the metric before comparing colors or magnitudes. Per 1% move, per $1 move and per unit are distinct choices. Read the returned unit rather than assuming that every displayed dollar amount means money paid for contracts.

Classic OI applies a positioning proxy to dated open interest. Flow-adjusted modeling incorporates eligible classified intraday volume into that proxy. Neither reveals actual dealer inventory or every hedge. Dealer and customer perspectives can reverse signs while retaining the underlying sensitivity calculation. A positive bar is therefore meaningful only with its metric, model, perspective, expiration selection and valuation time. Record those settings together when sharing a view, and match them before expecting two tools to return comparable values.

Navigate candles and model horizons independently

Exposure Forecast keeps observed one-minute price inputs while supported 1/5/15-minute views aggregate those observations locally. Changing interval therefore changes candle presentation rather than making a new forecast horizon. Drag the bottom axis to zoom time, the right axis to zoom price and the plot to pan both. Wheel gestures follow the relevant axis, and Ctrl-wheel in the plot adjusts price. Live refreshes preserve a manually chosen viewport; double-click or Reset restores available bounds.

Off-cash SPX/NDX modeled candles require explicit eligible inputs and the implied-price preference. Their tooltip can show the dated cash-close and matching futures calculation. A modeled index candle does not obtain index volume from futures volume, and missing minutes remain missing. A failed cash-history request can leave captured actual minutes available but partial. Keep these source states alongside horizon and range width when interpreting an apparent forecast miss: a missing observed outcome is different from an observed outcome outside the cone, and a stale reference is different from a current model projection.